The Raptors are much improved since trading Rudy Gay and now their future is wide open—a potentially scary prospect.
Last
night, the Toronto Raptors defeated the pathetic Milwaukee Bucks (hey, at leastthey have the Greek Freak, right?) 116-94. The win gave the Raptors their
second three game winning streak in the past month and improved their record to
12-5 since trading small forward Rudy Gay on December 9. The Raptors are now
19-17 overall and are currently the number three seed in the embarrassing (I
know, you've heard it before) Eastern Conference.
Much
has already been made of the Raptors "adding by subtraction" once
they got rid of Gay, his large contract, and his inefficient game. The numbers
don't completely bear out the improvement the team has shown since Gay was
traded. The Raps are shooting roughly the same percentage (right around 44.3%,
slightly below league average) that they were with Gay and his bevy of long
twos; their three point shooting is higher over the past 15 games at 38.5%
(above league average) and they are trending toward a more "analytics
friendly" increase in three point attempts per game. Their overall defense
is right in the middle of the pack, but they are fourth in points allowed.
All
of this points to a fairly mediocre team that is overachieving in a weak
conference. But the absence of Gay has had a galvanizing effect on the team.
Since Rudy's departure, The Raptors have scored wins over the Mavericks (at Dallas), the Thunder (in Oklahoma City) and the Pacers—all of whom are
playoff teams. Their assist ratio, while still in the bottom half of the
league, is showing a steady improvement, which means that more players are
feeling involved; and that has only helped team chemistry.
In
the past fifteen games, slightly overpaid shooting guard, DeMar DeRozan has
averaged 20.7 points per game on 41.1% shooting (44.4% over the past five
games), 5.5 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 78.2% from the free throw line. DeRozan
is currently eighth in the league in free throw attempts per game, which is an
encouraging sign for a developing shooting guard. His defense still has a ways to
go, though, as the Raptors are noticeably better on defense when he is off the
court. The team is allowing 107.3 points per 100 possessions with DeRozan on
the court and 103.7 with him off the court. He still doesn't space the floor
and his defense needs work, but the improvements he has shown over the past
month are promising. And, at only twenty-four years old, he is still increasing
his value as a potential trade-bait for a team looking to add a young perimeter
scorer
Meanwhile,
Amir Johnson (still only 26 despite being an eight year NBA veteran!) is having his best season to date. He's averaging 11 points per game on 61% shooting, 7
rebounds and 1.3 blocks. And on defense, he is limiting opponents to an elite 42.2%
field goal percentage per game. His performance so far this year has cemented
Johnson as a foundational piece moving forward; a hard-working big man who,
with some further polishing, has the potential to fill the role that David West currently does for the Indiana Pacers.
Young,
promising center Jonas Valanciunas, is not making the full leap forward that
many were expecting this season. Most of Jonas' numbers are down across the
board, but his rebounding is up and he is only allowing opponents to shoot
46.5% at the rim. That is not in the same category as top-flight defensive
centers like Andrew Bogut (allowing 43.5% opponent FG) and Roy Hibbert (an
insane 40.5%), but it is an encouraging place to be for a second year big man
and a point that can be emphasized in the off-season.
Then,
there is Kyle Lowry. Lowry's attitude issues have been much-maligned, but he
seems to be firmly removed from his spot on the trading block. As Raptors Republic has already reported, since
Gay's departure, Lowry's usage and assist percentages have both improved (18.7%
of possession to 20.8% and 30% to 36.5%) and he currently has the best true
shooting percentage of his career at 59.6TS%. He's only averaging 5.4 drives
per game, per NBA Player Tracking, but as his usage increases that number
should hopefully improve as well.
The
second half of the Raptors season will certainly be interesting. As of right
now, they have abandoned all hopes of scoring one of the prospects in the
"loaded" 2014 Draft. However, this year's draft is slowly losing the
overwhelming luster it had back in November, as scouts and pundits are starting
to poke holes in prospects like Andrew Wiggins, Marcus Smart and Julius Randle;
and rumors about Jabari Parker and Aaron Gordon returning to school for a
sophomore season are starting to swirl.
Toronto currently has the inside track on the three seed
in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. That means they'll get home court advantage
for at least one series and a very good chance to make it to the second round.
That kind of experience can only help a team with young players and assets; a
team that is starting to gel and enjoy playing with each other. Lowry will be a
free agent after the season. Depending on his performance in the second half of
the season and potentially the playoffs do they try to re-sign him to an affordable
deal? Do they try to pair DeRozan with future draft picks for a more efficient
wing scorer or a higher draft pick this year? Do they roll the dice on
promising "3 and D" rookie Terrence Ross' improvement next year?
These
are all interesting questions for the people of Toronto to ponder over the next few months.
The various roads the franchise can take from here might drive some fans mad.
But the bottom line is that Raptors fans haven't had anything approaching this
level of promise since 2001. That alone is something to be thankful for.
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