The condensed 2011-2012 NBA Season has been grueling for everyone, even Matt Domino. But now, the Puddles man himself breaks down the NBA Playoffs in a two-part feature.
The NBA Playoffs are upon us, my Puddlers. That’s right,
we’ve come to that magical time of the year when the lights are brighter; when
the air smells sweeter; when there are multiple exciting basketball games on
television every night of the week; and when you can almost see the opening credits on opening night for a movie that may or may not be the prequel
to the first Alien movie. For
those of you saying, “Oh, what happened this season, Domino? What you hardly
write about the regular season on the blog or on your crappy side-gig at SLAM
Online and now when the Playoffs roll around suddenly you’re interested and
looking to make a name for yourself in sports journalism again?” Well, for
those of you asking prolonged, slightly sarcastic hypothetical questions about
me, all I have to say to you is: Have you seen
my Twitter feed?!
For those of you who haven’t seen my Twitter feed, you are
lucky, because I am about to rise from the dead like Tupac
and regain my place upon the Royal Throne of Basketball Writing. That’s right,
I’ve been watching this entire NBA season with a close eye. I sat back for much
of the season because our own Alex Theoharides was doing such a great job of
capturing the zeitgeist in all of his
Minnesota Timberwolves coverage that I felt I could help expand the Puddles
brand—you know, like
a regular Harrison Barnes. But, now I can’t help but give you all my two
cents about what is about to unfold in the basketball world over the next two
months.
It’s been an interesting season. At times you really saw the
effect that the condensed schedule had on the players, but on other nights we
were treated to a truly remarkable level of play all around the league. We’ve
had the budding of some new rivalries between new teams as well as some fresh
bad blood between emerging players (i.e. Demarcus Cousins challenging Blake
Griffin to a fight in the tunnel of the Staples Center). We, of course, were
helped to a daily dose of overreaction to whatever the Miami Heat or Lebron
James did. We were witness to a resurrection—that being the
resurrection of the Boston Celtics. The Spurs gave us another classic under
the radar season while the Bulls gave us perhaps one of the defining
overachieving seasons of all-time. And just this weekend Ron Artest shed the
Metta World Peace persona and indulged in a
vintage outburst of raw power and confused emotion.
The 2012 NBA Playoffs start on Saturday, April 28, so I am
going to give you a team-by-team guide to what expect throughout the upcoming
weeks. This guide will be perfect for the die-hard NBA fan as well as the
unabashed and illogical NBA haters out there (Sorry, Ed, you’re still my
man).
So just leave the rough stuff
to Franklin and me and we’ll guide you through the 2012 NBA Playoffs in
what I am now calling the “Puddle of Myself Playoff Prediction Extravaganza
presented by Prometheus.”
First, the Western Conference:
The Western
Conference
8. The Utah Jazz
The Jazz snuck into the Playoffs by holding off the late
charging Phoenix Suns. One of the things we can thank the Jazz for is that by
keeping Steve Nash out of the Playoffs this year, they may have guaranteed that
Nash leaves the Suns this offseason and signs with a contender to get the NBA
Title that he deserves. The Jazz will be matched up with the San Antonio Spurs
in the first round and they
will certainly not be able to challenge the Spurs like the Grizzlies were able
to last year. However, when you look at this Jazz team, they really gelled and
grew as the year went along and they have some fantastic pieces moving forward.
Gordon Hayward remembered that he is actually a good basketball player and put together a very nice
sophomore season. He emerged as a dynamic threat to score and “pass the
basketball” as they say. Derrick Favors continued his evolution towards
becoming the middle-class man’s Serge Ibaka (with room to grow to upper-middle class—this is all a long
compliment by the way); Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap have both put up
borderline All-Star numbers along the front line and increased their trade
value for the Jazz to try and get more pieces to fill in around their other
young players like Alec Burks and Enes Kanter. All in all, it was a
surprisingly successful year for the Jazz and even though they won’t make it
out of the first round, their young players should gain some valuable Playoff
experience and the franchise looks to be in a great position for the next few
years. That is unless their young players regress or meet lower ceilings than
expected—then this will just be seen as a random fluke year after they traded
away Deron Williams! Who knows?
Prediction: Losing to
the Spurs 4-1 in the first round.
Pre-post Editor’s
Note: After doing more Jazz research and watching their win against Phoenix on
Tuesday night, I am starting to think the Jazz might give the Spurs more of a
scare then I thought. I still stand by my pick, but the front line of Derrick
Favors, Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson could actually give San Antonio very “Memphisesque”
problems. Do not be surprised if this series goes six games and if it is
tougher for the Spurs to pull away than it originally seemed.
7. The Dallas
Mavericks
Heavy is the head that wears the crown. However, in Dirk
Nowitzki’s case this past season, heavy are the legs of the man who didn’t play
basketball during the lockout and who ate rich German food most of the time.
The Defending Champion Dallas Mavericks have had a disappointing season that
can be best exemplified by the disastrous Lamar Odom experiment, though I
suppose the silver lining was that Khloe
Kardashian really enjoyed her time in the Lone Star State. Dallas enters
the postseason with a creaky, veteran team that isn’t exactly hitting their
stride the same way they were last year. I mean, they have Vince Carter. Is it
even possible to “hit your stride” with Vince on your roster? However, the fact
remains that they are the reigning champs, so you can’t totally count them out.
But when they are matched up with the younger, hungrier and much deeper
Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round, you can easily see them leaving the
postseason early. They’ll have a slight psychological edge after beating the
Thunder in the Western Conference Finals last year, but the Mavericks will not
make it out of the first round this year. They’ll start the offseason early and
start working out a deal with Deron Williams as well as try to find another
defensive piece or two to anchor their front line. Losing Kidd, gaining Deron,
having a motivated Dirk for an entire season and adding a few other depth
pieces (to go along with their surprise of this season, Brandan Wright) should
be enough to put the Mavs back in the title picture in 2012-2013.
Prediction: Losing to
the Thunder 4-1 in the first round.
6. The Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets fought off injuries all season as well as traded
away their best low-post player for the always-erratic JaVale
McGee, but they look dangerous heading into the Playoffs. They are without
a doubt one of the deepest teams in the league and have even gotten
surprisingly solid contributions across the board from JaVale since he was
traded to the Mile High City. Lawson has emerged as their go-to player over the
course of the season and they have an experienced and highly skilled defensive
backcourt between Lawson, Miller, Afflalo and Brewer. The Nuggets are also
getting 10 points and 7 rebounds a night (as well as extra dreadlock
credibility) from their physical and athletic rookie power forward, Kenneth Faried
and Danilo Gallinari has bounced back nicely from his injury and is slowly
getting sharper with each game. The Nuggets are matched up with the Lakers in
the first round and the Lakers will be vulnerable after the Artest Peace Elbow
(aka Stuck Between a Rock and a Harden Place), but I still see Kobe, Bynum and
Gasol prevailing over George Karl’s feisty squad. The Nuggets will test the
Lakers’ legs, though, but I still see this one going six games in favor of the
Lakers. The Nuggets will face an offseason where they, like a lot of other
good, but not great, deep teams have
to address their abundance of depth and lack of star power.
Prediction: Losing to
the Lakers 4-2 in the first round.
5. The Los Angeles
Clippers
It has been an up and down season for the Los Angeles
Clippers even though they are the number four seed in the West and have
basically evened the balance of basketball power in the city of Los Angeles for
the first time ever. They started off the season as media darlings thanks to
the “Lob City” moniker and the energy and excitement that Chris Paul brought to
the team. Their preseason alley-oops did nothing to suppress the hype, but
their slow start did. However, just as the Clips started hitting their stride,
with Paul throwing countless
lobs to DeAndre Jordan, and Blake Mozgoving everyone in sight,
Chauncey Billups went out for the season with injury. They slumped badly after
the All-Star break and nearly forced Vinny
del Negro out as coach, but over the past month, things have turned around
and they are heading into the Playoffs looking fairly formidable. They have
tried to add some depth pieces to the roster in the form Nick Young and “Kenyon
Martin”, but they haven’t been overwhelming additions. Losing in the first
round may seem like a failed season considering all the hype, but the Grizzlies
are just much deeper and much more skilled and efficient in the front court.
Over this season, the Clippers gained a level of legitimacy behind Chris Paul’s
competitive fire and they can build on that next year as they decide what to do
with Chauncey, their frontcourt depth and Vinny del Negro’s status as head
coach.
Prediction: Losing to
the Grizzlies 4-3 in the first round.
4. The Memphis
Grizzlies
Ah, now we get to the
good part. The Grizzlies are my dark horse choice to represent the West in
the NBA Finals. The Grizzlies were poised to be one of the favorites in the
West this season with Randolph and Gasol established as perhaps the most
dominant and skilled frontline in the NBA after last year’s Playoffs. Rudy Gay
was set to return from injury to provide his dynamic ability to create his own
shot and fill up the stat sheet; Mike Conley had another year of experience
leading the team from the point; O.J. Mayo was going to be dangerous off the
bench as always; and the entire team had gained a level of confidence from
their run last year that would carry them to the top of the standings. That all
backfired. Important bench player and glue guy, Dorrell Arthur went down with
an injury before the season, Battier signed with the Heat and then Randolph
when down in the early part of the season. The Grizzlies were resilient though
and they continued on, gaining chemistry and regaining their confidence as the
year went along. They have slowly been reincorporating Randolph back into the
offense and even though he isn’t yet up to the dominating standards he set last
postseason, he could very well get there after one round of the Playoffs. The
Grizzlies are going to need it though since they are going up against the Lob
City Los Angeles Clippers in the first round. That series will go seven, but for the Grizzlies, the more
games they play the better. I think they beat the Clippers in seven, beat the
Spurs in another seven game series before they face-off against the Oklahoma
City Thunder in the Western Conference Finals, where they finally bow out. But,
they could easily win and go to the Finals.
Prediction: Defeat
the Clippers 4-3 in the first round; Defeat the Spurs 4-3 in the Western
Conference Semifinals; Lose 4-2 to the Thunder in the Western Conference
Finals.
3. The Los Angeles
Lakers
The 2011-2012 Season has been a truly vintage year of Kobe
Bean Bryant. In the offseason, Kobe went to Germany to have experimental blood
platelet surgery performed on his knee (they call it the Herr A-Rod Special)
and was supposedly going to be rejuvenated heading into the compressed season.
And in many ways he was—basically he rejuvenated his ball-hogging antics from
the mid-2000’s. With Odom leaving L.A. for murky reasons and Pau rattled by the
failed Chris Paul trade, Kobe took the team in his own greedy, history-seeking
hands and started jacking shots like only he knows how. The Lakers struggled
under Mike Brown but always managed to stay near the top of the standings. They
withstood a lack of depth, a lack of trust in Mike Brown, Kobe’s ball hogging,
releasing Derek Fisher, Pau’s fragile psyche and Bynum’s tantrums and even
managed to pull off the best trade-deadline deal when they landed Ramon
Sessions from the Cleveland Cavaliers for basically nothing. Now, they have to
withstand losing all of their pre-Playoff momentum after Ron
Artest “inadvertantly” elbowed James Harden in the head last Sunday. Look,
I love Ron Artest, he has had the kind of human pathos and tragedy in his life
that I try to empathize with in any other person. And he is weird in such a
deeply humanistic and quirky way that I can’t help but appreciate him and all
of his attempts to try and be a better person. However, he obviously smacked James
Harden in the head with his elbow and the look on Artest’s face afterward was
primal and it was scary. Artest may miss much of the Lakers’ Playoff run
depending on what the NBA’s ruling is and it may cost the Lakers the NBA title.
However, if Kobe can pull off heroics like he did on Sunday—the
kind of heroics when you just shake your head and have to say “he’s the
best”—then the Lakers will always have a chance. But I think they bow out to
the Thunder in the Western Conference Semifinals in seven games. And maybe they
can trade Baby Bynum to Orlando for Baby Howard. Sorry, I couldn’t come up with
a better name, but Howard is seriously just a big baby. I’m tired of him.
Prediction: Defeat
Denver Nuggets 4-2 in the first round; Lose to the Thunder 4-3 in the Western
Conference Semifinals.
2. The Oklahoma City
Thunder
During last year’s Playoffs I hadn’t watched any part of The Wire. Now, I am well versed in all
of the mythology of that show and I can finally understand Bill Simmons’
constant Avon
Barksdale/Stringer Bell and Kevin Durant/Russell Westbrook comparisons.
Now, as much as I enjoy those comparisons, they are definitely forced. This
season, in many ways, Durant and Westbrook were able to put even the notion of
that kind of “Stringer/Avon” unrest to bed. Westbrook started off the season in
a slump, but once he signed his new contract he unleashed his finest season
thus far, averaging 23.5 points, 5.4 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 1.7 steals. But
what separated this season from last season (which was pretty similar
statistically) was the fact that he seemed more comfortable playing with and
deferring to Durant than he had last year. When you have that kind of 1-2 punch
playing in sync and then add, likely 6th Man of
the Year, James Harden into the mix, you are clearly one of the best teams
in the NBA. Yet in late March, right after they thrashed the Miami Heat in
Oklahoma City on ABC’s NBA Sunday Showcase, and Durant had nearly snatched the
MVP front-runner mantle from Lebron, the Thunder went into a slump. That slump
has now cost them the top seed in the Western Conference, but it may be the
best thing for them because they will avoid playing the Grizzlies in the second
round. The Thunder will be able to sharpen up in the first round against the
Mavericks, exorcise some demons, and reincorporate a post-Artest James Harden
back into the lineup. Then, they’ll get to exact revenge against Artest and the
Lakers in a hard fought Western Conference Semifinals before engaging in all
out warfare with the tough and nearly as equally athletic Memphis Grizzlies in
the Western Conference Finals. The key to that series will be Rudy Gay and
Marreese Speights’ defense on Kevin Durant. With Randolph and Gasol able to
help out with both scoring and defense on the low post, Gay should be able to
use most of his energy to play aggressive man defense on Durant and hopefully
slow him down. Gay has proven to be a good defender over the past two years and
he is the key that can potentially thwart the Oklahoma City from going to the
NBA Finals. However, I think the Thunder prevail in a tough, extremely close
six game series. It’s Westbrook and Durant.
Prediction: Defeat
the Dallas Mavericks 4-1 in the first round; Defeat the Los Angeles Lakers 4-3
in the Western Conference Semifinals; Defeat the Memphis Grizzlies 4-2 in the
Western Conference Finals.
1. The San Antonio
Spurs
I finally have to admit it: the San Antonio Spurs are
amazing. I also have to admit that I love Greg Popovich—he is one of the
greatest sports geniuses of all-time. When I look back on how he has managed
this team, year after year, with such a confident, bordering-on-bristling when
he has to, nonchalant intelligence, I am just dumbstruck (Plus when I watched this vintage footage
of Pop, I realized his humble beginnings and how long he has actually been
in my life. What? I’m sentimental!). You have to look no further than the
masterful job he did with this year’s version of the Spurs. Last year, even
though they were had the best record in the league and were one of the top
offensive teams, the Spurs were bothered by the size and speed of the Grizzlies
and were upset in the first round. Last year, the team still belonged in equal
parts to Duncan, Ginobli and Parker. This year, Pop clearly turned the team
over to Parker in a “Riley giving the 1987 Lakers to Magic” move. Duncan is
still obviously the spiritual figurehead of the franchise (plus he can still
have a throwback game or two from time to time), but now the Spurs give more
minutes to Tiago Splitter in order to add size. Parker now runs the team with
his speed and his endurance. When
he is on the break, young, role/rotation players like Gary Neal, Danny Green (one of my all-time favorite
UNC alums) and Kawhi Leonard (he will be really good eventually—already a fantastic defender) can keep up
with Tony and get to their spots on the floor. Then, just for depth, the Spurs
added the diverse (and busty) Boris Diaw at the trade deadline as well as
bringing back “the best teammate” anybody could ask for in “Captain Jack”
Stephen Jackson. I watched the Spurs destroy the Lakers last week and was
seriously impressed. I have been watching them for the past week and they look
fantastic, but I am still seriously troubled by their matchup with Memphis.
They won’t get pushed around as much as they did last year, but I still don’t
see Blair, Duncan and Splitter matching up with Randolph and Gasol over the
course of a long series, especially when the rotations are tighter. Plus, the
Grizzlies have the backcourt youth and depth to match up with well with the
Spurs. Conley can’t stop Parker alone, but he is quick enough to keep up and
the Grizzlies can always switch Tony Allen on him when they need a stop. It
will be another epic series, but I still don’t see the Spurs beating the
Grizzlies after yet another great regular season.
Predication: Defeat
the Utah Jazz 4-1 in the first round; Lose to Memphis 4-3 in the Western
Conference Semifinals.
That wraps up the Western Conference. The Thunder will make
it to their first NBA Finals in Oklahoma City (the Seattle Supersonics went to
three other Finals) to face off against the winner of the Eastern Conference, who
we will breakdown tomorrow in Part 2 of the Puddles of Myself Playoff
Prediction Extravaganza presented by Prometheus!
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